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The political equation is becoming increasingly interesting with the various exit polls and surveys released ahead of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. While most surveys show the NDA leading, one survey has sparked political turmoil. Journo Mirror’s survey projects a clear majority for the Grand Alliance (GGB).
Journo Mirror Changes the Equation
According to Journo Mirror, the Grand Alliance may win 130 to 140 seats this time, while the NDA is projected to win only 100 to 110 seats. This prediction is completely contrary to all other surveys. This survey claims that the public is in a mood for change this time and a new equation may emerge in the state.
NDA Leads in Other Surveys
However, other major survey agencies such as P-Mark, People’s Pulse, DV Research, Matrize IANS, Chanakya, Poll Diary, and Praja Poll Analytics have shown the NDA close to or above a majority. In these, the NDA has been estimated to win between 130 and 209 seats, while the Grand Alliance has been limited to between 32 and 108 seats.
| Source | NDA | MGB (महागठबंधन) | OTH (अन्य) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matrize IANS | 147–167 | 70–90 | 2–6 |
| Chanakya | 130–138 | 100–108 | 3–5 |
| Poll Diary | 184–209 | 32–49 | 1–5 |
| Praja Poll Analytics | 186 | 50 | 7 |
| Polstrat | 133–148 | 87–102 | 3–5 |
| TIF Research | 145–163 | 76–95 | 0–1 |
| JVC | 135–150 | 88–103 | 3–6 |
| Peoples Insight | 133–148 | 87–102 | 3–6 |
| Peoples Pulse | 133–159 | 75–101 | 2–13 |
| P-Marq | 142–162 | 80–98 | 1–7 |
| DV Research | 137–152 | 83–98 | 3–12 |
| Journo Mirror | 100–110 | 130–140 | 3–7 |
| Poll of Polls (Average) | 131–157 | 80–93 | 3–6 |
How many seats did each party win in 2020?
In the last Bihar Assembly elections, i.e., in 2020, the NDA alliance won a total of 125 seats and formed the government. At that time, the NDA secured a total of 125 seats, while the Grand Alliance secured 110 seats.
Looking at the figures from the last election, the BJP won 74 seats, the JDU 43 seats, the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) 4 seats, and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) 4 seats.
On the other hand, the RJD emerged as the largest party from the Grand Alliance, winning 75 seats. Congress got 19 seats, CPI (ML) got 12 seats, while AIMIM and other parties got 5 seats.
Which party will win how many seats in Bihar?
This exit poll predicts 87-95 seats for the NDA, 81-89 for the Janata Dal United (JDU), 12-16 for the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), 5-6 for the HAM, and 4-5 for the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM). For the Grand Alliance, the survey predicts 20-27 seats for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), 4-8 for the Congress, and 0 for Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP).
If Chanakya Strategies’ exit poll is to be believed, Prashant Kishore’s Jansuraj Party may not even open its account in the Bihar elections. In this scenario, the NDA may win 130-138 seats, the Grand Alliance 100-108 seats, Jansuraj 0 seats each, and others 3-5 seats.
The public mandate will be revealed on November 14th.
Voting for the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections took place on Thursday (November 6th) and Tuesday (November 11th). Now, on Friday (November 14th, 2025), the Election Commission of India (ECI) will count the votes cast in the Bihar Assembly elections and announce the final results.
