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Voting has been done on 50 seats in the two phases of Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections and now it is the turn of the third i.e. final phase of voting. Voting is to be done on 40 seats in the final phase of Jammu and Kashmir, in which the fate of 415 candidates will be decided by the voters on October 5. Out of the 40 seats in this phase, 24 seats are from Jammu region and 16 seats are from Kashmir region. This is the reason that the real test in this phase is of BJP and Congress, because these two parties have political base in Jammu belt. In this way, the one who will be successful in winning the hearts of Hindu voters will have the upper hand in the Jammu region.
The 40 seats of the third phase of Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections are divided into two regions. 16 seats of Kashmir region include Karnah, Tregam, Kupwara, Lolab, Handwara, Langate, Sopore, Rafiabad, Uri, Baramulla, Gulmarg, Waghora-Kreeri, Pattan, Sonawari, Bandipora and Gurez (ST) seats. Whereas, 24 seats of Jammu region include Udhampur West, Udhampur East, Chenani, Ramnagar (SC), Bani, Billawar, Basohli, Jasrota, Kathua (SC), Hiranagar, Ramgarh (SC), Samba, Vijaypur, Bishnah (SC), Suchetgarh (SC), RS Purajammu South, Bahu, Jammu East, Nagrota, Jammu West, Jammu North, Marh (SC), Akhnoor (SC) and Chhamb seats.
Key to power in the hands of Hindu voters
In the final phase of elections, Jammu region has more seats than Kashmir region. While Muslim voters are important in Kashmir politics, Hindu voters play an important role in Jammu. In this way, Hindu voters will decide the political future of BJP and Congress in the last phase of elections in Jammu and Kashmir. This is the reason why BJP has tried to retain its hold on Hindu votes by bringing UP CM Yogi Adityanath, who is considered the face of Hindutva, into the election campaign. CM Yogi addressed a public meeting in Ramgarh on Thursday and held two rallies on Friday. Apart from this, from Union Home Minister Amit Shah to PM Modi, they will try to save BJP’s strong fort by campaigning in the seats of Jammu region.
BJP faces the challenge of saving the stronghold
Ten years ago, when BJP emerged as the kingmaker in the politics of Jammu and Kashmir, the seats of Jammu region played an important role in it. BJP became a partner in the government by winning 25 seats in the 2014 elections. BJP had supported PDP. That is why Jammu is considered a strong fort of BJP, where its dominance still remains. Out of the 40 seats for which elections are being held in the third phase, 24 are from Jammu region. BJP was successful in winning 17 seats in the third phase in 2014, all of these seats were from Jammu region. BJP has no influence in the Kashmir region, due to which the party’s entire support is based on Jammu region and Hindu voters.
This time BJP’s political path in Jammu region is facing some difficulties. BJP has fielded its candidates on 24 seats in Jammu region, out of which it has to compete with Congress on 19 seats and will have to face National Congress on five seats. PDP and other parties of Kashmir do not have any special political base in the Jammu region, but Ghulam Nabi Azad’s party definitely has a political base. Congress’s tension can definitely increase due to the candidates of Ghulam Nabi Azad’s party contesting the elections.
Ghulam Nabi’s party is causing concern for the Congress-National Conference alliance, while Panthers Party has definitely become a tension for BJP. Due to Hindu votes in Jammu region, parties like National Conference and PDP could not establish their roots. Hindu vote bank which was around Congress and Panthers Party kept shrinking, but since 2014 it is with BJP. Congress’s position has improved, due to which tension may increase for BJP on some seats. Congress’s ally National Conference wants Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi and other Congress leaders to put in their strength in the third phase so that BJP can be defeated in Jammu region.
Political mathematics of 40 seats of third phase
Out of 40 seats in the third phase of Jammu and Kashmir, 24 seats are from Jammu and 16 seats are from Kashmir. Out of 214 seats in Kashmir region, PDP had political upper hand on 16 seats, while BJP dominated on 24 seats in Jammu region. The performance of Congress and National Conference was not very good. Political situation has changed after Article 370 and delimitation. There is not much difference in seats between Jammu and Kashmir. This time in Kashmir region, PDP is facing many challenges and the atmosphere is in favour of National Conference, but independent and other parties have increased the tension. In Jammu, Congress is the only challenge for BJP. In such a situation, it remains to be seen who has the upper hand between BJP and Congress in Jammu?
